Does a HOT Louisiana Summer Predict a Cold Winter?

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This past summer saw extreme heat in our area, as well as excessively dry conditions causing a burn ban for most of the summer.  It might've seemed like it could have been record-setting heat, but it ended up being just another long, hot, Louisiana summer.

Over a Month's Worth of Triple Digit Days

According to extremeweatherwatch.com, we booked over a month's worth of 100-degree days.  We had a couple runs of 100+ degree days this summer.  We had a 10-day run from July 28th through August 6th, with a high temperature of 106 on August 2nd... and then again from August 17th through the 27th, another 11-day stretch, reaching 110 degrees on the 10th and 11th.

In fact, between July 18th through September 23rd, we ended the summer with 36 days of temperatures topping the 100-degree mark. I think it's safe to say... we had a really long, hot summer.  But does that mean we're in for an extremely cold winter?

Does a Really Hot Summer Essentially Mean a Really Cold Winter?

You've probably heard that old axiom that "a really hot summer means we're in for a really cold winter."  Or even vice versa. But does that really hold true?  It turns out, summer holds no specific predictor of winter weather to come.

According to HowStuffWorks.com,

Because while climatologists and meteorologists use fancy science and climate data to see if we're in for a bad winter, it's not at all based on our summer months. There simply is no pattern that predicts a summer-to-winter conversion. In fact, even autumn calculations for a winter forecast are, by the forecasters' own admission, full of variables that prevent a reliably surefire prediction [source: Rudd "Cool"; Samenow]. 

TV station WTOL out of Ohio did a report on "3 Weather Myths" with the conclusion:

"The fact is, the two seasons don't have any relationship to each other."

 

KEEL News reached out to Weather Channel meteorologist Richard Lewelling who told us:

Many things, like ocean currents, wind patterns and even our local geography and climate can change how the weather behaves from year to year. Sometimes, they can make a hot summer follow a cold winter, but it's not a simple rule. It's a bit like trying to guess what's for dinner by looking at what you had for breakfast—it might give you a clue, but it's not a guarantee! Seasonal weather prediction requires climate modeling and analysis and even then there will be significant uncertainty.

NOAA has put out their winter forecast and it shows Near Normal weather for the ARKLATEX and above normal precipitation in its December thru February outlook and the forecast is being driven by a strong El Nino and  a strong subtropical jet stream influence. That should give us some much needed drought relief this winter.