ESPN’s Football Power Index Reveals Picks for Every LSU Game This Season
(KMDL-FM) ESPN, the Entertainment and Sports Programming Network, has revealed its annual Football Power Index for the major football programs around the country. The network has handicapped all of the LSU Tigers' football games scheduled for the upcoming season and, using the FPI, is offering a preseason prognostication of whether the Tigers will win or lose.
There will be an overabundance of attention focused on the LSU Football program following the offseason or near the end of last season's hiring of Lane Kiffin from the University of Mississippi. Kiffin has also made a lot of noise via the transfer portal and appears to have the Tigers primed and ready for a run at the SEC and the National Championship.
READ MORE: What's the Lane Kiffin Rule? And Will it Affect LSU This Season?
So it is not surprising that Coach Kiffin and the LSU Tigers are favorites in the majority of their games; at least before the season begins, they are favorites. The odds do tend to change once oddsmakers see the football teams on the field, and there is always the possibility of key injuries that could move the betting needle as well.
According to ESPN, the FPI relies on four key factors:
Performance over the past four seasons with the greatest emphasis on the most recent season; returning starters at quarterback (or transfers with starting experience) and on offense and defense overall; whether a team has a returning head coach; recruiting rankings over the past four seasons.
Now that we understand how the numbers were obtained, let's look at what the FPI says about the Tigers' Schedule in 2026.
Who Does LSU Play in September?
September 5: Clemson at LSU- The FPI likes LSU a lot in this game. The Tigers are given a 75.3% chance of victory over the Tigers with the funny-looking mascot.
September 12: Louisiana Tech at LSU- The FPI likes LSU even more in this one than it did over Clemson. The Tigers are given a 98% chance to defeat the Ruston Rowdies
September 19: LSU at Ole Miss - This will be a widely watched and hotly contested game. The teams don't like each other to begin with, and the whole Lane Kiffin hiring fiasco will fuel that fire. The FPI gives a slight edge to LSU with a 55% chance to bring home a win over Ole Miss.
September 26: Texas A&M at LSU - This will be another close game and will get a lot of attention from around the country. The Tigers, according to the FPI, are slight favorites over the Aggies. The FPI is 56.6%, so just slightly better than the Ole Miss FPI prediction.
Who Does LSU Play in October?
October 3: McNeese State at LSU - According to the FPI, there is no real reason to suit up the teams; LSU has already won the game. The FPI prediction is 99% in favor of the Tigers.
October 10: LSU at Kentucky- The Tigers will be favorites on the road when they travel to Lexington. The FPI suggests an 81.5% chance of victory for LSU. Let's hope the Tiger offense isn't too tired from all the points they will have scored against McNeese in the previous week.
October 17: Mississippi State at LSU- I think Mississippi State beats LSU in football about as often as Hailey's Comet comes around. Since there is no comet this year, the chance for the Bulldogs is pretty slim. The FPI likes LSU with an 89.0% chance of winning. The Tigers really need to stop scheduling these DII schools...wait? Is State DI? Really?
October 24: LSU at Auburn- After three weeks of cupcakes, LSU might actually find a football team at the "lovliest city on the plains". Auburn should put up a formidable fight, but the Louisiana Tigers should prevail. The FPI likes LSU to win at 67.3%
Who Does LSU Play in November?
November 7: Alabama at LSU- First we'll have Halloween and then 'Bama Hate Week, sweet! I know LSU fans are looking for a sweet whipping of that Alabama butt, but the FPI is saying hold on, not so fast. The FPI does give the advantage to LSU at 56.2%, but that's pretty close to a toss-up. I think Tiger Stadium's home-field advantage wins this one for LSU.
November 14: Texas at LSU- By this time in the season, we'll know if Arch Manning is to be feared or made fun of. The pundits at ESPN are leaning toward "fear" in their assessment of the game. Texas has the nod with LSU given only a 36% chance at victory over the Longhorns.
November 21: LSU at Tennessee- Tennessee football is back from the basement of the SEC; they're better than most folks realize, and they will give LSU a fight. Especially after the Tigers have faced Alabama and Texas in back-to-back weeks, the FPI still likes LSU with a 57.9% rating.
November 28: LSU at Arkansas- Arkansas football is better but still not the annoying winning pigs of yesteryear as they used to be. The FPI likes LSU at 84%, but depending on how the games against Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee go, the Tigers could be fighting an uphill battle.
What Are LSU's Chances of Winning the National Championship?
According to ESPN's FPI, the projected win total for the Tigers is 8.4 games. The team is given a 39.7% chance to earn a berth in the College Football Playoffs. The chances of the Tigers ending the season with a national championship, according to the FPI is 3.5%.
LSU opens the season on September 5th at Tiger Stadium versus Clemson.
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