Tropical Models Suggest ‘November Surprise’ For Louisiana

It was during the month of April that tropical weather forecasters armed with data, history, and a lot of computer models informed residents of coastal Louisiana and the Gulf South in general that Hurricane Season 2024 was going to be busy. Residents along the I-10 corridor from New Orleans to Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and Lake Charles all took time to tune up their generators, refresh their hurricane kits, and start tracking Jim Cantore.

Over the course of the spring and summer, we watched Beryl disrupt life along the upper Texas Coast and in Houston. We watched Francine slide into the southeastern part of the state. We were horrified when we learned of the damage caused by Helene and Milton to our neighbors to the east. And now we find ourselves with barely a month and a week left in the season. It's got to be over with, right?

If you're a fan of the Old Farmer's Almanac then you know Louisiana was done with the tropical season in September. The OFA had three tropical systems causing problems for Louisiana this year and the publication was spot-on with their prediction. They are not showing any more tropical troubles for Louisiana.

However, more scientific endeavors, namely the GFS Model, the one the National Weather Service puts a lot of faith in, do seem to show tropical activity on the increase in the southern Gulf of Mexico by early November.  We reported on a potential tropical trouble spot a few weeks ago that was noted by the GFS, which turned out to be Hurricane Oscar, so there is some merit to the very long-range findings of the GFS model.

Currently, that model is showing that on or about November 1st, that's the day after Halloween, a low-pressure center will form or move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS Model suggests there will be significant convection or thunderstorms associated with this weathermaker.

By November 2nd the GFS model suggests a strengthening low-pressure between New Orleans and the Yucatan. That's when things start to get even fuzzier. The GFS Model suggests the system's moisture is picked up by yet another tropical wave that is moving into the eastern Caribbean at about that same time.

Fortunately, while all that is happening over the ocean, a strong cold front will be pushing through Louisiana and the Gulf South well to the north. This cold front should not only sweep any tropical development off to the east but it should bring in much cooler temperatures as we enter the final month of the 2024 Hurricane Season. 

Please remember that tropical forecast models do provide great information but they are not official forecasts. Use only information from official forecasts to make decisions concerning life and property. Personally, I agree with the Old Farmer's Almanac, I think Louisiana is done for this year's tropical season. Bring on the Gumbo weather.